Wananchi 7 kati ya 10 wanaukubali utendaji wa Rais Magufuli/7 out of 10 citizens approve of the performance of President Magufuli

Rais anakubalika zaidi miongoni mwa makundi ya wazee na wenye kiwango kidogo cha elimu

15 Juni 2017, Dar es Salaam: Asilimia 71 ya wananchi wanaukubali utendaji wa Rais Magufuli tangu alipoingia madarakani. Kiwango hiki kimeshuka kutoka asilimia 96 mwezi Juni 2016.  Viwango vya kukubalika kwa Rais vinatofautiana katika makundi mbalimbali:

• Asilimia 68 wenye umri chini ya miaka 30 wanamkubali Rais ikilinganishwa na asilimia 82 wenye umri zaidi ya miaka 50
• Asilimia 75 ya wananchi wenye elimu ya msingi au chini yake wanamkubali Rais ikilinganishwa na asilimia 63 ya wale wenye elimu ya sekondari au zaidi
• Asilimia 75 ya wananchi masikini wanamkubali Rais ikilinganishwa na asilimia 66 ya wananchi matajiri.

Viwango vya kukubalika kwa viongozi wengine navyo pia vimeshuka katika kipindi hicho hicho.

• Wabunge:  Kukubalika kwa utendaji wa wabunge kumeshuka kutoka asilimia 79 (Juni 2016) hadi asilimia 58 (Aprili 2017).
• Madiwani: Kukubalika kwa utendaji wa madiwani kumeshuka kutoka asilimia 74 (Juni 2016) hadi asilimia 59 (Aprili 2017).
• Wenyeviti wa vijiji/mitaa: Kukubalika kwa utendaji wa wenyeviti wa vijiji/mitaa kumeshuka kutoka asilimia 78 (Juni 2016) hadi asilimia 66 (Aprili 2017).

Matokeo haya yametolewa na Twaweza katika utafiti wake uitwao Matarajio na matokeo; Vipaumbele, utendaji na siasa nchini Tanzania. Utafiti huo unatokana na takwimu kutoka Sauti za Wananchi, utafiti wa kwanza barani Afrika wenye uwakilishi wa kitaifa unaotumia simu za mikononi. Matokeo hayo yanatokana na takwimu zilizokusanywa mwezi Aprili mwaka 2017 kutoka kwa wahojiwa 1,805 kutoka maeneo mbalimbali Tanzania Bara (Zanzibar haihusiki kwenye matokeo haya).

Kukubalika kwa vyama vya siasa kunatoa taswira mchanganyiko. Kukubalika kwa CCM kumeendelea kuimarika, ikiwa ni kati ya asilimia 54 na asilimia 65 kati ya mwaka 2012 na 2017, Baada ya kushuka mwaka 2013 na 2014 ambapo kiwango cha kukubalika kilifikia asilimia 54 kutoka asilimia 65 ya 2012. Kukubalika kwa CCM kumeendelea kubaki katika kiwango hicho hicho cha asilimia 62 tangu uchaguzi wa mwaka 2015 na asilimia 63 mwaka 2017. Kukubalika kwa Chadema kumeshuka hadi asilimia 17 mwaka 2017 kutoka asilimia 32 mwaka 2013.

CCM inakubalika zaidi miongoni mwa wazee (asilimia 80), ukilinganisha na asilimia 55 ya vijana. Wanawake (asilimia 68) wanaikubali CCM kuliko wanaume (asilimia 58), maeneo ya vijijini (asilimia 66) kuliko maeneo ya mijini (asilimia 57), na wananchi masikini (asilimia 69) kuliko matajiri (asilimia 53). Wananchi wenye elimu ya sekondari, elimu ya ufundi au elimu ya juu wanaikubali CCM kwa asilimia 46.

Kukubalika kwa Chadema kwa ujumla unafuata mtiririko tofauti: ni mkubwa miongoni mwa vijana, wanaume, watu matajiri na wenye kiwango kikubwa cha elimu.

Ndani ya kipindi cha miaka miwili tu, vipaumbele vya wananchi vimebadilika sana. Mwaka 2015, asilimia 34 ya wananchi walitaja umasikini na uchumi duni kama moja ya vipaumbele vyao vikubwa ikilinganishwa na asilimia 60 waliotaja masuala hayo mwaka 2017. Mwaka 2015, ni asilimia 9 waliotaja upungufu wa chakula au njaa kama kipaumbele chao ikilinganishwa na asilimia 57 mwaka 2017.

Katika kipindi hicho hicho, wasiwasi wa wananchi juu ya huduma za umma na rushwa umepungua.

Asilimia ya wananchi wanaotaja masuala yafuatayo kuwa miongoni mwa changamoto kuu tatu zinazoikabili nchi:

• Afya: asilimia 40 mwaka 2017 ikilinganishwa na asilimia 59 mwaka 2015.
• Elimu: asilimia 22 mwaka 2017 ikilinganishwa na asilimia 44 mwaka 2015.
• Miundombinu: asilimia 21 mwaka 2017 ikilinganishwa na asilimia 32 mwaka 2015.
• Huduma ya maji: asilimia 19 mwaka 2017 ikilinganishwa na asilimia 46 mwaka 2015.
• Rushwa: asilimia 10 mwaka 2017 ikilinganishwa na asilimia 28 mwaka 2015.

Mkurugenzi Mtendaji wa Twaweza Aidan Eyakuze, anasema: “Idadi kubwa ya wananchi inaendelea kuukubali utendaji wa Rais Magufuli. Lakini kushuka kwa viwango vya kukubalika kwake, pamoja na vile vya wabunge, madiwani na wenyeviti wa mitaa, ni ujumbe mzito kutoka kwa wananchi wanaohisi kuwa, tofauti na matarajio yao, wameangushwa na utendaji wa serikali katika kuzitatua shida zao moja kwa moja. Wananchi wana hofu na vitu vya msingi – kipato na chakula - na wanatuma ujumbe mzito kwa viongozi wao."

"Lakini utafiti unabainisha ujumbe mwingine kutoka kwa wananchi. Katika orodha ya matatizo makubwa matatu yanayowakabili, afya, elimu na maji zimeshuka ngazi. Sekta hizi kwa miaka mitatu mfululizo zilichukua nafasi za juu kama changamoto kuu zilizotajwa na wananchi. Utafiti huu unaashiria kuwa wananchi wanayaona mabadiliko katika upatikanaji wa huduma za jamii."

---- Mwisho ----

Kwa taarifa zaidi wasiliana na:
Risha Chande, Mshauri Mwandamizi wa Mawasiliano, Twaweza
Barua pepe: rchande@twaweza.org | Simu: (+255) (0) 656 657 559

Maelezo kwa Wahariri

1. Muhtasari huu na takwimu zake zinapatikana kupitia www.twaweza.org, au www.twaweza.org/sauti
2. Twaweza inafanya kazi ya kupima uwezo wa watoto kujifunza, wananchi kuwa na utayari wa kuleta mabadiliko na serikali kuwa wazi na sikivu zaidi katika nchi za Tanzania, Kenya na Uganda. Twaweza ina programu, wafanyakazi na ofisi katika nchi zote tatu, na utaratibu unaoheshimika kimataifa wa kujifunza, ufuatiliaji na tathmini. Programu zetu muhimu ni pamoja na Uwezo, ambayo ni tathmini kubwa ya kila mwaka ya wananchi barani Afrika inayopima viwango vya watoto vya kujifunza kwenye maelfu ya kaya, na Sauti za Wananchi, utafiti wa kwanza Afrika wenye uwakilishi wa kitaifa unaofanyika kwa njia ya simu ya mkononi. Pia tunashiriki kwenye masuala ya umma na sera, kupitia ubia wetu na vyombo vya habari, juhudi za kimataifa zinazoshughulikia masuala ya uongozi kama vile mpango wa Ushirikiano na Serikali wazi (OGP).
3. Tovuti: www.twaweza.org Facebook: Twaweza Tanzania Twita: @Twaweza_NiSisi

*****
Approval of the President is higher among older citizens and those with lower education levels

15 June 2017, Dar es Salaam: Seven out of citizens (71%) approve of the performance of President Magufuli since taking office. This is down from 96% in June 2016. Approval ratings for the President vary between groups.

• 68% of those under age 30 approve of the President compared to 82% of those over 50
• 75% of citizens with no education or some primary approve of the President compared to 63% of those with secondary education or higher
• And approval is slightly higher among poorer citizens (75%) than among the richest (66%).

Approval ratings for other political leaders have also fallen over the same period.

• MPs: 58% approval rating (April 2017) compared to 68% (June 2016)
• Councilors: 59% approval rating (April 2017) compared to 74% (June 2016)
• Village / street chair-people: 66% approval rating (April 2017) compared to 78% (June 2016)

These findings were released by Twaweza in a research brief titled The end of the beginning? Priorities, performance and politics in Tanzania. The brief is based on data from Sauti za Wananchi, Africa’s first nationally representative high-frequency mobile phone survey. The findings are based on data collected from 1,805 respondents across Mainland Tanzania (Zanzibar is not covered in these results) in April 2017.

Support for political parties paints a mixed picture. Support for CCM has remained steady, ranging between 54% and 65% between 2012 and 2017. After a slump in 2013 and 2014 during which the party’s approval rating fell to 54% (2013 and 2014) from 65% (2012), support has remained consistent since the election at 62% in 2015 and 63% in 2017. Support for Chadema, however, has seen declined to 17% in 2017 since it peaked at 32% in 2013.

Support for CCM is highest among older people (80%), compared to 55% among younger citizens. It is also higher among women (68%) than men (58%), in rural areas (66%) than urban areas (57%), among poorer citizens (69%) than among the relatively rich (53%). Fewer  than half (46%) of those with secondary, technical or higher education support CCM. Support for Chadema generally follows the opposite pattern, higher among the young, men, the relatively wealthy and those with more education.

Over the past two years, however, citizens’ priorities have shifted substantially. In 2015, 34% of citizens cited poverty or economic challenges as one of their top three priority areas for the country compared to 60% mentioning this in 2017. Even more notable, in 2015 fewer than one in ten citizens (9%) mentioned food shortages or famine as a priority issue compared to 57% in 2017.

During the same period, citizens’ concerns about public services and corruption appear to have diminished.

Percentages of citizens citing the following issues as among the top three challenges for the country:

• Health: 40% in 2017 compared to 59% in 2015
• Education: 22% in 2017 compared to 44% in 2015
• Infrastructure: 21% in 2017 compared to 32% in 2015
• Water supply: 19% in 2017 compared to 46% in 2015
• Corruption: 10% in 2017 compared to 28% in 2015

Aidan Eyakuze, Executive Director of Twaweza, said: “A majority of citizens continue to approve of the performance of the President. But the sharp drop in ratings, combined with the drop in approval ratings for all politicians, sends a sobering message. Citizens are fast losing trust in their political leaders"

“But beyond the headline approval ratings” he continued, “a more interesting trend is visible. First, the sharp drop in people mentioning public services as priority areas is noteworthy. These sectors have consistently topped the ranks for citizens’ main challenges over the past three years. This poll suggests that citizens are signaling improvements in terms of public service delivery. But, the steep rise in the number of citizens expressing concerns about poverty and about food shortages should not be ignored. Citizens are deeply worried about the most basic of issues - food - and they are sending a strong message to their leaders. Who is listening?”

For more information:
Risha Chande, Senior Communications Advisor, Twaweza
e: rchande@twaweza.org | t: (+255) (0) 656 657 559

Notes to Editors

1. This brief and the data contained can be accessed at www.twaweza.org, or www.twaweza.org/sauti
2. Twaweza works on enabling children to learn, citizens to exercise agency and governments to be more open and responsive in Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda. We have programs, staff and offices across all three countries, and a globally respected practice of learning, monitoring and evaluation. Our flagship programs include Uwezo, Africa’s largest annual citizen assessment to assess children’s learning levels across hundreds of thousands of households, and Sauti za Wananchi, Africa’s first nationally representative mobile phone survey.  We undertake effective public and policy engagement, through powerful media partnerships and global leadership of initiatives such as the Open Government Partnership
3. You can follow Twaweza’s work
4. Web: www.twaweza.org     Facebook: Twaweza Tanzania     Twitter: @Twaweza_NiSisi